RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta: The Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) has projected that the peak of Ramadan-related inflation this year will occur in March 2026, as the holy month is expected to begin in mid-February.

BPS Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics, Puji Ismartini, explained that the timing of Ramadan strongly influences inflation trends. “If it starts early in the month, inflation usually accumulates over the entire month,” she said in Jakarta on Monday, January 19, 2026.

She noted that if Ramadan begins in the middle or toward the end of a month, inflation tends to be spread out. “This pattern has been consistent in inflation data over the past five years,” Puji added.

She cited 2023 as an example, when Ramadan began on March 23. Inflation appeared that month, but the peak occurred in April. By contrast, in 2025, when Ramadan started on March 1, inflation in March reached 1.65 percent, the highest Ramadan-related inflation in the past five years. “This was due to the influence of Ramadan lasting a full month,” Puji said.

For 2026, with Ramadan expected to begin in mid-February, Puji emphasized that inflation readings should be interpreted in line with this historical pattern.

Meanwhile, Ministry of Home Affairs Secretary General Tomsi Tohir reminded that inflation consistently rises ahead of Eid al-Fitr. “If the increase is reasonable, it is not a problem, but often it rises too high,” he said.

Tomsi pointed to the sharp surge during Eid al-Fitr in 2025. He explained that normal monthly inflation averages around 0.3 percent, but during the holiday period last year, it spiked to 1.6 percent, more than five times higher.

He said the increase affected almost all commodities, with some prices soaring three to four times above normal levels.

Tomsi described the situation as excessive and stressed the government’s commitment to preventing irrational price hikes. “Control measures are carried out before and during the Eid al-Fitr period,” he said. (Gusti Panji/Lasti Martina)